DREAM.4 -- Hits and Predictions

DREAM official commentator "The Voice" Michael Schiavello gives his predictions for DREAM.4 at the Yokohama Arena on June 15.

Dream.4 on paper looks to be another ridiculously action-packed offering for all MMA fans. The first three Dream cards were crazy. Admittedly Dream.1 was a little slow out of the gate, as can be expected, but Dream.2 and Dream.3 were among the best MMA shows of the year, with fights like Alvarez vs Dida, Alvarez vs Hansen and Aoki vs JZ among the best fights of the year. What we're seeing in Dream so far is a very high level of fighting in which fighters are transitioning well between the three levels of MMA and providing us with some aesthetically beautiful contests as well as some hair-raising moments.

Dream.4 sees the second round of the Middleweight Grand Prix and the last remaining match of the Light Weight Grand Prix second round. Some of the match-ups in this round are truly surprising. Here's my thoughts on who the winners will be:

SHINYA AOKI vs KATSUHIKO NAGATA

I'm actually a fan of both of these guys, even though Aoki took my pimpin' favourite JZ Calvan out of the tournament in no uncertain terms. In beating JZ, Aoki seemed to earn everyone's respect. His negation of JZ's attacks, his use of the rubber guard, his jumping takedowns to pull guard and his constant pressure and workrate was very impressive. People will continue to underestimate Aoki but let's not forget that he has now won 10 fights in a row and you have to go back to August 2006 to find the last blemish on Aoki's record. In this day and age of such high level competition, especially at this stacked weight class, that's pretty freakin' impressive.
Next weekend Aoki finds himself against former Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler Katsuhiko Nagata. I like Nagata. He's not flash, he's not one of DREAM's pin-up boys, but he's a solid workhorse with good takedown ability, solid GnP and can wear punishment. How will he deal with Aoki's seemingly elasticised body and constant submission attempts? The answer lies in Nagata's ability to put Aoki on his back, avoid the rubber guard and work the ground and pound ad nauseum. This is the only way I can see Nagata possibly beating Aoki -- ground and pound all night baby.
While I think Nagata won't be the easy lunch a lot of people anticipate, I do see Aoki winning this one via submission. It wouldn't surprise me if Nagata leaves an arm out there a moment too long while working some ground and pound and Aoki throws those rubber legs up and puts on a triangle my high school geometry teacher would be proud of!

AOKI by SUBMISSION

ZELG GALESIC vs TAIEI KIN

You can't believe how much I'm looking forward to this contest. In fact this could easily be top candidate for fight of the night as you have two brilliant strikers with rapidly improving ground game and a never-give-up attitude.
First let's look at Taiei Kin. This guy is a stud. I've been watching him since 1993 when he competed in the first ever K-1 promoted tournament. He was a Seido Karate Champion, World Muay Thai champion long-standing, one of Japan's most successful ever kickboxers and made a successful transition very late in his career (he's 36) to MMA.
Taiei Kin is a true martial artist and a true athlete. He's challenged himself constantly at the highest level in various combat sports for the better part of 15 years and he's still a potent force who flies the flag of Karate proudly in the MMA arena.
I was ringside commentating his fight at Dynamite two years ago when he knocked out Ishizawa with a kick to the head -- if you havent seen it then youtube it because it was one of the greatest MMA knockouts I have ever seen (yep, better than Yvel vs Goodridge).
In his last fight Kin defeated the crafty veteran Minowaman - a decent scalp to claim in this tournament. While it was expected that Kin would out-strike Minowaman -- I believe I said in the commentary "it would be suicide for anyone in this tournament to try to outstrike Taiei Kin" -- what really impressed me was Kin's takedown defence. As hard as Minowaman tried to take down the veteran, Kin sprawled sprawled sprawled and when back against the ropes stuffed Minowaman's takedown attempts constantly. He also had a very active guard from which he constantly punched and looked for submission attempts.
Across the ring you have Galesic, a Croatian Muay Thai specialist who has a win on his record already over Taiei Kin due to a doctor's stoppage in Korea last October. Galesic impressed all and sundry at DREAM.2 when he put Sultanakhmadov (you know how hard that name is to pronounce on air!) in an arm bar for the win in the first round. After losing to Dong Sik Yoon in Hero's from the same technique (yes sherdog fans, I refer to it in commentary as the DONG-BAR), Galesic said he went away and learned the submission and used it successfully against Sultanakhmadov.
What intrigues me about this fight is that you have two Muay Thai guys who have solid improving ground game. Will this be a stand-up fight or will it go to ground? And if it is a stand-up fight who has the upper hand? Experience and power goes to Taiei Kin; Galesic is younger and quicker.
It's a hard fight to call and I believe that Galesic will only be able to take so many of Taiei Kin's leg kicks before it really starts to take a toll. Galesic has to take Taiei Kin down and take those vicious leg kicks and potential decapitating head kicks out of the equation. Taiei Kin meanwhile will look to keep it on its feet. His distancing and his anticipation is incredible -- the mark of a true world class striker. I have said all along that Kin is the best natural striker in this Middleweight Grand Prix and watch him prove it again next weekend.

TAIEI KIN by TKO

JACARE vs JASON MILLER

Did anyone else wet their pants with excitement when they saw this match up? Come on... you know a little bit of pee came out. Hell, I was drenched!
Jacare versus Miller is going to be a crazy fight. I see it as one of Dream's best submission stylists in the Alligator against a guy who is waaaaaay off the reservation and has the mad ground and pound in Miller.
On their feet Miller wins the striking battle, no questions asked. Will he want to keep this fight on its feet and try to out strike Jacare or will he want to put his Jits to the mettle and go to the ground?
As for Jacare, you know the Alligator is going to want to take Miller down and look to submit him in any number of ways. Jacare has more subs than the US Navy and if Miller gives the Brazilian an opening, Jacare will tie him up and take him out.
That said, this will be a major test and gut check for Jacare as Miller is probably the hardest guy (and most resilient) Jacare has faced in his MMA career. In his first DREAM fight against Ian Murphy, Jacare wasn't tested. Murphy, the 22 y.o. wrestler, was really a gift for the Brazilian.
Miller wins in on the feet, Miller wins it in aggression, Miller wins it in ground and pound... BUT... I foresee Jacare taking a LOT of punishment on the ground and being busted up as he attempts and eventually GETS the submission against the long-limbed Miller.
I don't want to see either of these guys eliminated yet. Both are entertainers and highly skilled athletes. I love Miller's whole "few fries short of a Happy Meal" schtick and Jacare's Alligator Dance is the best move since the Macarena. But one of them has to be eliminated...

JACARE by SUB



PART TWO COMING SOON...